Research & Evidence

We are not working in a vacuum.

Encounter and cohesion simply matter — for every town and for a society. Before spending the first euro, we read the research, compared programmes and learned from what others tried. This page shows the key numbers, studies and role models — every claim with a clickable source.

Our compass, not our corset

Research points the way — but the people on the ground decide. No pub is a statistic: every place has its own story, its own regulars, its own worries. We don't tell anyone how to run their pub. We show what has worked elsewhere, we listen first, and we build each package together with the pub it is for.

The situation

Pub closures in numbers.

Germany has been losing its pubs for years — quietly, town by town. The key figures at a glance:

> 50 %

of Germany's pubs have disappeared since 2002 — from around 46,500 to about 21,000.

Destatis time series via watson
− 39.7 %

real revenue in drinks-led hospitality versus 2019 — the fastest-shrinking segment of the industry.

DEHOGA industry report IV/2025 (PDF, German)
− 28 %

fewer drink-led pubs between 2018 and 2022 alone (29,515 → 21,276 businesses).

VAT statistics via Hotelier.de (German)
≈ 500

of Berlin's once ~20,000 corner pubs are still open today.

DEHOGA Berlin via Tageskarte (German)

Across the country

In Brandenburg, 40 % of pubs in the Prignitz region closed, and half of all taverns in the Uckermark (2010–2023). In Saxony-Anhalt, one in three hospitality businesses in small towns disappeared; 18 municipalities no longer have a single pub. In Bavaria, 37 % of municipalities had no pub as early as 2010 — and the pressure is growing: almost one in five hospitality businesses sees its existence under threat (ifo, April 2026).

Why pubs are dying

Energy costs 125 % more than in 2019 and labour costs rose by almost 40 % — while beer consumption keeps falling (106 litres per head in 2013, 88 litres in 2023) and going-out habits change. On top of that, a structural disadvantage: the reduced 7 % VAT introduced in 2026 applies to food only — drinks remain at 19 %. Drinks-led pubs barely benefit from the biggest hospitality tax relief in years.

The economics of a pub

Of every euro in revenue, a typical pub keeps between −2 and +3 cents — after stock (28–32 cents), staff (≈ 40 cents), rent, energy and overheads. At the same time, no other hospitality segment generates less revenue per worker. Many village pubs survive only because the landlady doesn't count her own wages — leaving nothing for investment. That is exactly where our programme starts.

The counter-trend

At the same time, a renaissance is underway: young people are rediscovering the pub — for darts, quiz nights, honest prices and real community. “There is hope for pub culture,” reported dpa in summer 2025, and the culture pages celebrate the renaissance of the corner pub. That is why we call this a comeback — not a rescue.

The research

What pubs mean for people.

That places of encounter are good for people is not a gut feeling — it is one of the best-documented findings in social research. A selection:

Meta-analysis · 148 studies · 2010

Social ties keep you healthy

People with strong social relationships have roughly 50 % higher odds of survival — an effect about as large as quitting smoking.

715 English villages · 2016

Where there's a pub, there's more cohesion

A comparison of 715 villages shows: where there is a pub, community cohesion is measurably stronger — more shared activities, more conversations, more neighbourly help. The effect comes from the place itself, not from who happens to live there.

University of Oxford · 2017

A local makes life richer

People with a regular pub have more close friends on average (7.2 vs 6.0), are more satisfied with their lives and trust others more. Transparency: the original study was commissioned by the pub organisation CAMRA — in 2017 it was additionally published peer-reviewed.

Chicago 1995 · urban research

Everyday places save lives

Two nearly identical, equally poor neighbourhoods — completely different death rates in the 1995 heat wave. The neighbourhood with busy shops, meeting places and streets was among the safest in the city: survival depended on places where people knew each other.

Germany · 2024/25

Loneliness is not a fringe issue

11.3 % of adults felt severely lonely in 2021 — young adults are affected most (14.1 %), and low income is the biggest risk factor. Germany's federal strategy against loneliness explicitly addresses places of encounter.

Germany · 2023

Cohesion is measurably crumbling

Measured social cohesion fell to 52 out of 100 points — the sharpest decline since measurement began, with helpfulness and togetherness dropping most.

Concept · since 1989

The pub as a “third place”

Sociologist Ray Oldenburg called meeting places beyond home (first place) and work (second place) “third places”: low-threshold, no obligations, open to everyone. The classic village and corner pub fits his criteria almost perfectly — the place exists, the regulars exist. What's missing is not a concept, but tailwind.

„What matters is not the beer, but the encounter.“

Oliviero Angeli, TU Dresden · dpa interview, June 2026 (German)
Best practices

What works elsewhere — and what we take from it.

We evaluated support programmes from five countries — the successful ones and the failures. We learn from both:

England · since 2001

Pub is The Hub

Advice from industry professionals plus a small grant so pubs can build new services (shop, post office, café). Every pound invested returns roughly £9 of community value.

Small money plus good advice beats big money without advice.

France · since 2019

1000 cafés

The programme finds, trains and accompanies hosts for village cafés — 71 % of its budget goes into this support, not into buildings.

The bottleneck is the host, not the building.

France · since 1993

Bistrot de Pays

A quality label built on voluntary commitment: village bistros pledge multiple services, regional food and cultural evenings — and receive network and marketing in return. Stable for over 30 years.

Commitments made as equals, not imposed rules — that lasts for decades.

Schleswig-Holstein · since 1999

MarktTreff

More than 40 locations combine a pub or shop with services and a meeting place under one roof — Germany's longest-running multi-function model.

Several revenue streams carry a place across decades.

Ireland · 2022

Night-Time Economy Scheme

Up to €10,000 per venue — earmarked for cultural programming on quiet weekdays (at least four events Monday to Thursday).

Money for events fills exactly the empty evenings that kill pubs.

England · community ownership

Community pubs

Where locals take over their pub together, 92–99 % of the businesses survive — far above the industry average.

Where the town pulls together, the pub becomes stable — that's why local backing matters in our selection.

Austria · since 2024 · cautionary tale

Lower Austria's pub bonus

A €10,000 one-off payment without selection or support: roughly one in five funded pubs closed again within a short time.

Money alone doesn't fix a business model — selection and support make the difference.

NRW · since 2019 · cautionary tale

NRW “Third Places”

The state programme funds houses for culture and encounter — with strict competitive selection. But even generously funded places couldn't sustain themselves after three years; the state had to top up.

“What sustains itself after the funding ends?” must be answered from day one.

Where the evidence has limits — honestly stated

Many studies show correlation, not causation — it could simply be that sociable people go to pubs more often. The most robust works (such as the 715-village comparison or the Chicago analysis) rule this objection out; others don't.

Some industry figures come from trade associations rather than official statistics — where both exist, we name the source and cross-check. And international experience doesn't transfer one-to-one to every German village.

That is exactly why we will evaluate our pilot honestly and independently — and publish what worked and what didn't. Both.

Over to you

No pub is a statistic.

Research shows the big picture — but you know your town, your regulars and your bar better than any study. We listen first, then we fund. Tell us what's going on at your place: what's weighing on you, what's working, what's missing? Disagreement and first-hand experience are explicitly welcome.

← Back to the start page