How we did the maths

The model in four steps

The whole model fits into one sentence: a glass carries fixed costs, and the month is that glass times the quantity.

Step 1 takes a single beer apart. VAT comes off the gross price. Stock and premises we work out once, at the reference price of three euros, from the cost ratios of the trade; after that these amounts are fixed in euros.

That is the most important difference from a calculation made purely of percentages: the brewery, the rent and the electricity do not get more expensive just because the landlady charges more for the beer. Turning the price therefore changes what is left over — not the costs.

The landlady’s wage is part of the calculation, not what happens to be left at the end. She stands behind the bar whatever the glass costs, and in our calculation she gets a normal hourly rate for it — times the hours she works. A day the pub is open counts as a full working day: six of those hours she spends at the bar, and before and after come kegs, stock runs, cleaning and the till. Five nights therefore add up to exactly one full-time job — and to exactly the gross monthly wage that the statistics give for landladies. Two more nights a week mean more work and more wages.

Step 2 works out a month, with exactly the same amounts times the quantity. What is missing or left over after all costs including her wage is the pub’s result.

Step 3 asks how many drinks have to cross the bar in an hour for that wage to really be there — the same statement, only in drinks instead of euros.

Step 4 stops calculating and starts counting: how many pubs are left, and what research knows about places that have lost theirs.

The formulas

working day     = 39 hrs / 5 days = 7.8 hrs
hours per month = days · 7.8 · 4.33
landlady’s wage = €22.53 · hours per month
drinks per hr   = customers · drinks per customer / 6
help per night  = (drinks per hr / 30 − 1) · 6
                  — never less than zero
casual staff    = help per night · days · 4.33 · €13.90 · 1.22

net          = price / 1.19
stock        = 30% · (€3.00 / 1.19)
the premises = (12% + 9% + 10%) · (€3.00 / 1.19)
wage         = €22.53 · 7.8 / (customers · drinks per customer)
help         = casual staff / drinks per month
left over    = net − stock − wage − help − the premises

drinks          = customers · drinks per customer · days · 4.33
takings         = drinks · price
stock total     = €0.76 · drinks
premises total  = €0.78 · drinks
result          = net takings − stock total
                  − premises total − casual staff
                  − landlady’s wage
                = left over · drinks

available for wages = result / hours per month + €22.53
green from €22.53 per hour
amber from €13.90 per hour
needed per opening hour
                    = target per working hour · 7.8 / 6
                      / margin per glass

The percentages above are the cost ratios of the trade. We apply them once to the reference price of €3.00 — which gives 76 cents of stock and 78 cents for the premises. Those amounts do not move after that, whatever the beer costs. The landlady’s wage is not a percentage but an hourly rate times hours: she stands behind the bar whether the glass costs €2.50 or €4.50. Broken down to a single glass it therefore depends on how busy the pub is, not on the price — with 25 customers on five nights that is €2.01 a glass. The “Needed” tile in step 3 counts drinks per opening hour, but the wage applies per working hour. That is why its formula carries the factor 7.8 to 6: in one opening hour the wage for a whole working hour has to come in, plus a slice of the working day before and after it. The €13.90 minimum wage costs the business €16.96 — we add 22% in employer contributions. The last two lines say the same thing, once per glass and once per month: the result of the month is exactly what is left over on one glass times the quantity. And the traffic light turns green exactly when a wage of €22.53 per hour has been covered.

Why we do not use the staff cost ratio

The usual cost ratios of the German hospitality trade — 30% stock, 40% staff, 12% rent, 9% energy, 10% other — add up to 101%. That cannot be right. For staff we therefore did not use them at all: a wage is not a share of takings but an hourly rate times hours.

The difference is not a detail, and it counts against us. The trade ratio of around 38.5% would come to 97 cents for staff at three euros a glass. With 25 customers on five nights we work with €2.01 for the landlady alone. A small pub simply runs at a lower capacity than the trade average — with the ratio our calculation would look friendlier than it is.

We also cross-checked the stock figure. The Federal Ministry of Finance’s official benchmark tables — figures from audited businesses — give a cost of goods for pubs and restaurants, which is exactly this stock figure, of 20% to 36%, 28% on average. The 30% we work with sits inside that range. The fixed euro amount per glass that the calculator uses is therefore not plucked from the air: it comes from that officially backed ratio, applied to the reference price.

Assumptions without a source

Not every number in this calculator comes from a statistic. The values below are figures from experience or quantities we worked out ourselves. In the calculator we mark them “Assumption”, so that nobody mistakes them for sourced figures.

• €3.00 per glass, incl. VAT

  Three euros for a beer — the price we assume for a typical village pub. It is a unit of account: we use it once to turn the industry's cost ratios into fixed euro amounts per glass. Those amounts then stay put, even when you move the price slider. Selling your beer for more does not mean you pay more rent.

• 39 hours per week

  Full-time in hospitality is usually 39 hours a week. This figure turns the monthly pay from the statistics into an hourly wage: €3,805 divided by 39 hours times 4.33 weeks gives €22.53 an hour. One note for honesty's sake: the €3,805 is an employee's gross pay. A self-employed landlady carries her social insurance alone — in reality she needs more.

  Partly sourced: Federal Employment Agency pay atlas (German)

• 5 opening days = full time

  A day the pub is open is a full working day. The landlady spends six hours of it behind the bar; before and after come the barrels, the shopping, the cleaning, the till and the books. We treat five such days as a full-time job: 39 hours divided by 5 gives 7.8 working hours per opening day. Open five evenings and you land exactly on the full-time gross of €3,805; open two and you land on a part-time income. A calibration, not a survey.

  Working hours per month = opening days · 7.8 · 4.33 weeks.

• 1.22 times the minimum wage

  A member of casual staff costs more than their wage. On top of the minimum wage of €13.90 we add 22 per cent employer contributions — pension, health, long-term care and unemployment insurance, accident cover and levies. That makes €16.96 an hour. The exact rate depends on the health insurer and the type of employment; 22 per cent is the usual approximation.

• 6 hours per evening

  An evening in the pub lasts six hours here — roughly from 6 pm to midnight. That figure determines how many drinks cross the bar in an hour and at what point one person alone can no longer keep up. The landlady's working day is longer than the opening hours; how much longer is set out under full-time days. A unit of account, not a survey.

• 4.33 weeks per month

  52 weeks divided by 12 months gives 4.33. That is calendar arithmetic, not an assumption about the business.

• 30 drinks per hour

  One person behind the bar manages around 30 drinks an hour — one every two minutes: pouring, taking payment, clearing up. Anything beyond that we add as casual staff. A figure from experience, not a survey.

  Casual staff hours per evening = (drinks per hour ÷ 30 − 1) · opening hours, minimum zero.

• 150 regulars

  A rule of thumb from practice: around 150 regulars support a pub as a full-time living. It squares with our own arithmetic, but it is not itself statistically surveyed.

• 2,000 to 3,000 residents

  A town of this size realistically brings together 150 regulars. A figure from experience, not a survey.

Where this calculation ends

• We calculate a drinks-led pub. A kitchen, events, room hire or a shop in the same building do not appear.
• We calculate one person behind the bar, plus casual staff as soon as the crowd gets too big for one person. A business with permanent employees adds up differently.
• In our model, stock and premises depend on the quantity. A pub that hardly anyone comes to therefore pays hardly any rent in this calculation — in reality the rent runs on whether anyone comes or not. For the empty pub our calculation is too friendly at this point.
• We count one opening day as one full working day — 7.8 hours, so that five nights make up a full-time job. Open seven nights and this calculation comes to just under 55 hours a week. That is a calibration, not a survey: in reality how much work falls before and after opening depends on the pub.
• The costs per glass are fixed and grow with the quantity. In reality rent and electricity jump in steps: the second fridge costs all at once, not per beer. For a small pub that is close enough, for a large business it is not — hence the note when the calculation runs beyond its range.
• At a low price with very many customers, the help needed eats up the gain again: each further drink then brings in less than the labour behind it costs. The calculator says so too — the “Needed” tile stays empty.
• We calculate with one drink price for everything. In reality spirits and wine carry more than beer.
• We calculate with constant thirst. If the price goes up, in our calculation the customers keep drinking just as much. In reality some go home earlier — our price effect is more likely too large than too small.
• Rent, energy and other costs sit together in “the premises”. Anyone who owns the building is considerably better off.
• Tax on profits, depreciation and investment are missing. So the wage we calculate is more likely too high than too low.
• The finding on election results in step 4 comes from Britain. It is the best one we found — it does not transfer one to one to German villages.

Sources

1. [1] German VAT Act § 12, standard rate of 19 per cent (German)2026 Drinks served on the premises are subject to the standard rate of 19 per cent. The reduced rate under subsection 2 applies to food, not to drinks.
2. [2] Gastroinsider hospitality benchmarks 2026 (German)2026
3. [3] Federal Finance Ministry benchmark rates 2025, pubs (PDF, German)2025 Official figures from audited businesses: gross profit mark-up on the cost of goods 178–400 per cent, median 257 per cent — which corresponds to a cost of goods of 20–36 per cent of net turnover, 28 per cent on average. This evidences the cost of goods ratio, not the purchase price per glass.
4. [4] DEHOGA figures Q4/2025 (PDF, German)2025
5. [5] MiLoV5 § 1, regulation of 5 November 2025 (German)2025 Official wording: “The minimum wage is 1. from 1 January 2026 €13.90 gross per hour, 2. from 1 January 2027 €14.60 gross per hour.” Full citation: Fifth Minimum Wage Adjustment Regulation of 5 November 2025 (BGBl. 2025 I No. 268; No. 312). Basis: decision of the Minimum Wage Commission of 27 June 2025.
6. [6] Federal Employment Agency pay atlas (German)2025 Median €3,805 gross per month. We divide by full-time hours (39 hours a week × 4.33 weeks = 168.87 hours) and work with €22.53 an hour. The figure describes employees; a self-employed landlady pays her own social insurance and really needs more. The page is built by JavaScript, so the value can only be read in a browser.
7. [7] Destatis VAT statistics WZ 56.3 (via watson.de, German)2025 The figures come from the official VAT statistics. We link the freely accessible write-up here; our own extract from the database will follow.
8. [8] Bolet 2021, Comparative Political Studies2021